Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

217.6 – 492.7

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

109 – 585

Prediction correct · off by 100.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 636.8 ±10.7

7551Extreme Mechanism

Season APEX 179Event APEX 20.73Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 56.72Rank 66Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8612Calvin Christian Robotics

Season APEX 237.6Event APEX 140.15Rank 20Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 946 ±9.3

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 129.85Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 169.16Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9483Overcharge

Season APEX 377.8Event APEX 193.69Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7551, 9757, 8612

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.6 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 7551, 9757, 8612

Auto

32.7 15%

Teleop

135.3 64%

Endgame

43.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1792, 4946, 9483

/ 100 compat

Projected

492.7 pts

~2.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 1792, 4946, 9483

Auto

68.8 14%

Teleop

279.7 58%

Endgame

132.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.6 · Blue 2.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score217.6pts

Blue projected score492.7pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -275.1
Score range: 151–560
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 694 vs event baseline 371.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

636.8Season APEX946

32.7Auto68.8

135.3Teleop279.7

43.6Endgame132.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	158
teleop	45	330
endgame	41	97
foul	0	0
total	109	585

Result

Final score

109 – 585

Prediction correct · off by 100.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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