Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

351.24 – 407.52

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

244 – 508

Prediction correct · off by 103.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 840.1 ±9.3

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 98.12Rank 32Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 123.69Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2848Rangers

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 129.43Rank 43Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 777.1 ±8.7

3770BlitzCreek

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 98.12Rank 57Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7220Steel Falcons

Season APEX 253.6Event APEX 151.02Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 158.38Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10340, 498, 2848

/ 100 compat

Projected

351.2 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 10340, 498, 2848

Auto

70.9 21%

Teleop

184.5 54%

Endgame

87.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3770, 7220, 7558

/ 100 compat

Projected

407.5 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 3770, 7220, 7558

Auto

54.7 14%

Teleop

229.1 58%

Endgame

113.1 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.29 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score351.2pts

Blue projected score407.5pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -56.3
Score range: 283–476
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 752 vs event baseline 377.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

840.1Season APEX777.1

70.9Auto54.7

184.5Teleop229.1

87.6Endgame113.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	139
teleop	124	282
endgame	53	87
foul	0	0
total	244	508

Result

Final score

244 – 508

Prediction correct · off by 103.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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