Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

248.58 – 184.77

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

264 – 336

Prediction missed · off by 83.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 544.9 ±9.7

334TechKnights

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 42.29Rank 69Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10396Mostra

Season APEX 127.8Event APEX 59.43Rank 75Record 0-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 146.86Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 661.7 ±9.3

4451ROBOTZ Garage

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 83.43Rank 26Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7563SESI SENAI MEGAZORD

Season APEX 186.3Event APEX 41.91Rank 44Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 59.43Rank 34Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 334, 10396, 118

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.6 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 334, 10396, 118

Auto

55.7 22%

Teleop

135.4 54%

Endgame

57.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4451, 7563, 9072

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.8 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 4451, 7563, 9072

Auto

26.4 14%

Teleop

92.6 50%

Endgame

67.7 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score248.6pts

Blue projected score184.8pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63.8
Score range: 116–318
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 600 vs event baseline 381.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

544.9Season APEX661.7

55.7Auto26.4

135.4Teleop92.6

57.4Endgame67.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	105	26
teleop	118	138
endgame	41	157
foul	0	15
total	264	336

Result

Final score

264 – 336

Prediction missed · off by 83.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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