Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

398.57 – 464.14

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

266 – 507

Prediction correct · off by 87.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 564.2 ±10.5

1306BadgerBOTS

Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 189.14Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9277Sparkans

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 144.57Rank 70Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10114Phantom Talons

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 64.86Rank 68Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 747.6 ±8.1

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 139.14Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 189.14Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 135.86Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1306, 9277, 10114

/ 100 compat

Projected

398.6 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 1306, 9277, 10114

Auto

45.4 12%

Teleop

230.1 60%

Endgame

110.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 190, 836, 10014

/ 100 compat

Projected

464.1 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 190, 836, 10014

Auto

75.6 17%

Teleop

261.7 57%

Endgame

118.9 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.16 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score398.6pts

Blue projected score464.1pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -65.6
Score range: 330–533
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 773 vs event baseline 381.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

564.2Season APEX747.6

45.4Auto75.6

230.1Teleop261.7

110.3Endgame118.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	118
teleop	129	269
endgame	115	110
foul	0	10
total	266	507

Result

Final score

266 – 507

Prediction correct · off by 87.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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