Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

376.23 – 279.72

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

476 – 203

Prediction correct · off by 88.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 697.8 ±9.3

3255SuperNURDs

A+

Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 163.18Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2337EngiNERDs

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 106.58Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3630Stampede

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 106.47Rank 29Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 630.6 ±11.9

7403Lightning Blue Lizards

Season APEX 220Event APEX 56.29Rank 65Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 86.86Rank 39Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7257Semiconductors

Season APEX 179.4Event APEX 136.57Rank 54Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3255, 2337, 3630

/ 100 compat

Projected

376.2 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 3255, 2337, 3630

Auto

84.6 23%

Teleop

222.5 59%

Endgame

67.9 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7403, 422, 7257

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.7 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 7403, 422, 7257

Auto

55.2 20%

Teleop

165.5 61%

Endgame

49.1 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.32 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score376.2pts

Blue projected score279.7pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 96.5
Score range: 209–447
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 679 vs event baseline 391.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

697.8Season APEX630.6

84.6Auto55.2

222.5Teleop165.5

67.9Endgame49.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	141	52
teleop	212	78
endgame	113	63
foul	10	10
total	476	203

Result

Final score

476 – 203

Prediction correct · off by 88.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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