Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

303.47 – 321.28

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

38 – 316

Prediction correct · off by 135.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 494.3 ±14.3

6829Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 77.43Rank 58Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2096RoboActive

Provisional

Season APEX 188.5Event APEX 144Rank 61Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5968Little Apple Cyborgs

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 82.04Rank 47Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 668.1 ±9.9

11269Batteries Not Included

Season APEX 125.7Event APEX 106Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 128.99Rank 19Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 86.29Rank 48Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6829, 2096, 5968

/ 100 compat

Projected

303.5 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 6829, 2096, 5968

Auto

66.4 23%

Teleop

154.6 52%

Endgame

73.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 11269, 955, 1908

/ 100 compat

Projected

321.3 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 11269, 955, 1908

Auto

73.8 23%

Teleop

189.2 59%

Endgame

57.1 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score303.5pts

Blue projected score321.3pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.8
Score range: 230–394
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 354 vs event baseline 407.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

494.3Season APEX668.1

66.4Auto73.8

154.6Teleop189.2

73.7Endgame57.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	86
teleop	14	173
endgame	1	42
foul	0	15
total	38	316

Result

Final score

38 – 316

Prediction correct · off by 135.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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