Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

461.99 – 263.46

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

718 – 401

Prediction correct · off by 196.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 831.8 ±9.3

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 164.57Rank 12Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3620Average Joes

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 109.71Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 187.71Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 573 ±11.1

9484Robot's District

Season APEX 158Event APEX 144Rank 55Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 62.89Rank 27Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2704Roaring Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 56.57Rank 56Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5026, 3620, 117

/ 100 compat

Projected

462 pts

~2.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 5026, 3620, 117

Auto

84.6 19%

Teleop

248.0 55%

Endgame

122.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9484, 2877, 2704

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.5 pts

~0.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 9484, 2877, 2704

Auto

44.4 17%

Teleop

124.2 48%

Endgame

90.3 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.9 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score462pts

Blue projected score263.5pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 198.5
Score range: 192–533
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1119 vs event baseline 395.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

831.8Season APEX573

84.6Auto44.4

248Teleop124.2

122.3Endgame90.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	126	65
teleop	433	223
endgame	154	93
foul	5	20
total	718	401

Result

Final score

718 – 401

Prediction correct · off by 196.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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