Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

233.4 – 214.84

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

591 – 519

Prediction correct · off by 330.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 849 ±8.7

2619The Charge

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 106Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4522Team SCREAM

A+

Season APEX 310.1Event APEX -Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX -Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 699 ±9.8

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX -Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

179Children of the Swamp

Season APEX 230Event APEX 55.14Rank 41Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4967That ONE Team-OurNextEngineers

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 96Rank 52Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2619, 4522, 4946

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.4 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 2619, 4522, 4946

Auto

55.9 24%

Teleop

112.3 49%

Endgame

62.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 498, 179, 4967

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.8 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 498, 179, 4967

Auto

34.5 16%

Teleop

116.1 56%

Endgame

58.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score233.4pts

Blue projected score214.8pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18.6
Score range: 146–302
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1110 vs event baseline 382.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

849Season APEX699

17.7Auto15.4

48.6Teleop84.3

36.9Endgame45.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	139	92
teleop	320	268
endgame	117	159
foul	15	0
total	591	519

Result

Final score

591 – 519

Prediction correct · off by 330.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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