Qualification · Qualification 125

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

404.39 – 222.46

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

439 – 338

Prediction correct · off by 75.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 661.5 ±9.3

2848Rangers

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 123Rank 43Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2040DERT - Dunlap Eagles Robotics Team

Season APEX 192Event APEX 110.2Rank 36Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2337EngiNERDs

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 171.19Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 633.5 ±10.5

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 91.64Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

334TechKnights

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 49.5Rank 69Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6766AtomStorm

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 81.32Rank 74Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2848, 2040, 2337

/ 100 compat

Projected

404.4 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 2848, 2040, 2337

Auto

76.6 19%

Teleop

225.8 57%

Endgame

95.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10014, 334, 6766

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.5 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 10014, 334, 6766

Auto

56.2 26%

Teleop

107.6 50%

Endgame

51.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.41 · Blue 0.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score404.4pts

Blue projected score222.5pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 181.9
Score range: 150–476
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 777 vs event baseline 398.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

661.5Season APEX633.5

76.6Auto56.2

225.8Teleop107.6

95.8Endgame51.1

113Consistency162

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	56
teleop	232	101
endgame	143	166
foul	5	15
total	439	338

Result

Final score

439 – 338

Prediction correct · off by 75.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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