Qualification · Qualification 124

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

341.42 – 546.25

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

617 – 493

Prediction missed · off by 164.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 711.9 ±9.3

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 194.61Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

321RoboLancers

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 25.61Rank 62Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4635PrepaTec - Botbusters

Season APEX 262Event APEX 121.2Rank 28Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 852.7 ±10.7

3255SuperNURDs

A+

Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 243.7Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9597Luban Robotics

A+

Season APEX 324.6Event APEX 180.15Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 122.4Rank 39Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 498, 321, 4635

/ 100 compat

Projected

341.4 pts

~0.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 498, 321, 4635

Auto

119.0 34%

Teleop

173.0 50%

Endgame

53.6 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3255, 9597, 422

/ 100 compat

Projected

546.3 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 3255, 9597, 422

Auto

120.9 22%

Teleop

306.8 56%

Endgame

117.1 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.81 · Blue 2.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score341.4pts

Blue projected score546.3pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -204.8
Score range: 270–617
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 1110 vs event baseline 396.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

711.9Season APEX852.7

119Auto120.9

173Teleop306.8

53.6Endgame117.1

91Consistency129

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	125	98
teleop	321	229
endgame	156	146
foul	15	20
total	617	493

Result

Final score

617 – 493

Prediction missed · off by 164.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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