Qualification · Qualification 123

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

569.3 – 240.07

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

692 – 303

Prediction correct · off by 92.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 760.2 ±8.8

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 156.75Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

179Children of the Swamp

Season APEX 230Event APEX 166.66Rank 41Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

67The HOT Team

Season APEX 280.7Event APEX 245.89Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 594.4 ±10.5

10217Catahoula Blue Dogs

Season APEX 169Event APEX 44.84Rank 46Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11269Batteries Not Included

Season APEX 125.7Event APEX 30.37Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 164.86Rank 32Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 190, 179, 67

/ 100 compat

Projected

569.3 pts

~2.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 190, 179, 67

Auto

91.3 16%

Teleop

291.3 52%

Endgame

182.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10217, 11269, 10340

/ 100 compat

Projected

240.1 pts

~0.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 10217, 11269, 10340

Auto

84.6 36%

Teleop

114.6 49%

Endgame

33.1 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.79 · Blue 0.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score569.3pts

Blue projected score240.1pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 329.2
Score range: 169–640
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 995 vs event baseline 395.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

760.2Season APEX594.4

91.3Auto84.6

291.3Teleop114.6

182.9Endgame33.1

102Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	126	56
teleop	402	139
endgame	159	93
foul	5	15
total	692	303

Result

Final score

692 – 303

Prediction correct · off by 92.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

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