Qualification · Qualification 122

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

153.08 – 264.25

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

87 – 295

Prediction correct · off by 48.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 491.3 ±12.4

10114Phantom Talons

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 10.69Rank 68Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3630Stampede

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 94.01Rank 29Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6940Violet Z

Season APEX 206.2Event APEX 48.38Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 576.3 ±9.8

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 82.58Rank 66Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5968Little Apple Cyborgs

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 65.61Rank 47Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2638Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 116.06Rank 59Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10114, 3630, 6940

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.1 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 10114, 3630, 6940

Auto

54.0 39%

Teleop

50.8 37%

Endgame

34.3 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9757, 5968, 2638

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.3 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 9757, 5968, 2638

Auto

65.9 27%

Teleop

107.3 45%

Endgame

67.0 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.92 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score153.1pts

Blue projected score264.3pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -111.2
Score range: 81–336
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 382 vs event baseline 397.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

491.3Season APEX576.3

54Auto65.9

50.8Teleop107.3

34.3Endgame67

121Consistency125

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	100
teleop	28	101
endgame	23	79
foul	15	15
total	87	295

Result

Final score

87 – 295

Prediction correct · off by 48.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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