Qualification · Qualification 120

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

345.31 – 408.01

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

396 – 461

Prediction correct · off by 51.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 669.3 ±9.9

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 186Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2704Roaring Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 64.67Rank 56Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

245Adambots

Season APEX 181.6Event APEX 94.64Rank 67Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 664.9 ±9.9

4451ROBOTZ Garage

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 147.8Rank 26Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6324The Blue Devils

Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 173.42Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9277Sparkans

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 86.79Rank 70Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4946, 2704, 245

/ 100 compat

Projected

345.3 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 4946, 2704, 245

Auto

81.6 25%

Teleop

184.0 55%

Endgame

66.4 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4451, 6324, 9277

/ 100 compat

Projected

408 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 4451, 6324, 9277

Auto

43.4 11%

Teleop

214.3 53%

Endgame

145.3 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.22 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score345.3pts

Blue projected score408pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -62.7
Score range: 274–479
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 857 vs event baseline 396.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

669.3Season APEX664.9

81.6Auto43.4

184Teleop214.3

66.4Endgame145.3

113Consistency177

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	32
teleop	252	263
endgame	74	151
foul	5	15
total	396	461

Result

Final score

396 – 461

Prediction correct · off by 51.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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