Qualification · Qualification 119

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

385.56 – 316.31

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

447 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 76.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 652.4 ±9.3

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 88.06Rank 60Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1002CircuitRunners Robotics

Season APEX 265.3Event APEX 190.77Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7563SESI SENAI MEGAZORD

Season APEX 186.3Event APEX 106.73Rank 44Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 582.5 ±8.7

772Sabre Bytes Robotics

Season APEX 124.3Event APEX -19.62Rank 71Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 173.11Rank 50Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8612Calvin Christian Robotics

Season APEX 237.6Event APEX 162.82Rank 20Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 619, 1002, 7563

/ 100 compat

Projected

385.6 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 619, 1002, 7563

Auto

80.3 21%

Teleop

195.0 52%

Endgame

100.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 772, 48, 8612

/ 100 compat

Projected

316.3 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 772, 48, 8612

Auto

72.2 23%

Teleop

160.3 51%

Endgame

82.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score385.6pts

Blue projected score316.3pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69.3
Score range: 245–457
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 672 vs event baseline 396.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

652.4Season APEX582.5

80.3Auto72.2

195Teleop160.3

100.8Endgame82.1

117Consistency127

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	98	60
teleop	254	136
endgame	95	29
foul	0	0
total	447	225

Result

Final score

447 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 76.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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