Qualification · Qualification 118

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

526.25 – 266.14

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

652 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 64.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 812 ±8.4

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 247.89Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 140.92Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8Paly Robotics

A+

Season APEX 305.7Event APEX 137.44Rank 23Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 586 ±10.5

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 97.78Rank 51Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6652Tigres

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 30.45Rank 73Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2252The Mavericks

Season APEX 254.4Event APEX 137.91Rank 49Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 117, 118, 8

/ 100 compat

Projected

526.3 pts

~2.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 117, 118, 8

Auto

83.6 16%

Teleop

314.7 61%

Endgame

121.6 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3603, 6652, 2252

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.1 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 3603, 6652, 2252

Auto

32.6 13%

Teleop

145.1 57%

Endgame

74.7 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.79 · Blue 0.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score526.3pts

Blue projected score266.1pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 260.1
Score range: 195–597
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 915 vs event baseline 396.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

812Season APEX586

83.6Auto32.6

314.7Teleop145.1

121.6Endgame74.7

120Consistency139

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	90	31
teleop	388	128
endgame	174	89
foul	0	15
total	652	263

Result

Final score

652 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 64.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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