Qualification · Qualification 117

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

144.33 – 323.79

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

188 – 336

Prediction correct · off by 27.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 507.8 ±11.2

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 90.91Rank 45Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7551Extreme Mechanism

Season APEX 179Event APEX 11.33Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

10396Mostra

Season APEX 127.8Event APEX 42.09Rank 75Record 0-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 656.7 ±13.9

7220Steel Falcons

Season APEX 253.6Event APEX 155.4Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 159.73Rank 25Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2096RoboActive

Provisional

Season APEX 188.5Event APEX 8.66Rank 61Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1076, 7551, 10396

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.3 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 1076, 7551, 10396

Auto

47.4 31%

Teleop

77.5 51%

Endgame

25.7 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7220, 3536, 2096

/ 100 compat

Projected

323.8 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 7220, 3536, 2096

Auto

91.2 28%

Teleop

176.4 54%

Endgame

56.9 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.63 · Blue 2.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score144.3pts

Blue projected score323.8pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -179.5
Score range: 72–396
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 524 vs event baseline 397.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

507.8Season APEX656.7

47.4Auto91.2

77.5Teleop176.4

25.7Endgame56.9

188Consistency118

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	92
teleop	105	163
endgame	3	81
foul	45	0
total	188	336

Result

Final score

188 – 336

Prediction correct · off by 27.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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