Qualification · Qualification 115

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

320.3 – 393.52

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

361 – 217

Prediction missed · off by 108.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 610.2 ±9.3

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 174.53Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3770BlitzCreek

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 73.88Rank 57Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7257Semiconductors

Season APEX 179.4Event APEX 71.89Rank 54Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 634.1 ±10.7

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 205.71Rank 27Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9646The Marinators

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 84.32Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4967That ONE Team-OurNextEngineers

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 103.49Rank 52Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1792, 3770, 7257

/ 100 compat

Projected

320.3 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 1792, 3770, 7257

Auto

88.7 28%

Teleop

163.0 52%

Endgame

63.3 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2877, 9646, 4967

/ 100 compat

Projected

393.5 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 2877, 9646, 4967

Auto

60.9 16%

Teleop

200.3 52%

Endgame

121.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.12 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score320.3pts

Blue projected score393.5pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -73.2
Score range: 249–465
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 578 vs event baseline 396.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

610.2Season APEX634.1

88.7Auto60.9

163Teleop200.3

63.3Endgame121.3

137Consistency120

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	50
teleop	158	144
endgame	98	13
foul	25	10
total	361	217

Result

Final score

361 – 217

Prediction missed · off by 108.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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