Qualification · Qualification 113

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

453.6 – 416.33

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

544 – 365

Prediction correct · off by 70.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 715.9 ±9.3

179Children of the Swamp

Season APEX 230Event APEX 152.63Rank 41Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 119.34Rank 39Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 181.63Rank 34Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 588.5 ±9.9

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 196.83Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6829Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 99.71Rank 58Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9484Robot's District

Season APEX 158Event APEX 119.79Rank 55Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 179, 422, 9072

/ 100 compat

Projected

453.6 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 179, 422, 9072

Auto

62.7 14%

Teleop

238.5 54%

Endgame

144.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3414, 6829, 9484

/ 100 compat

Projected

416.3 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 3414, 6829, 9484

Auto

88.2 21%

Teleop

225.0 54%

Endgame

106.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score453.6pts

Blue projected score416.3pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.3
Score range: 345–525
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 909 vs event baseline 396.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

715.9Season APEX588.5

62.7Auto88.2

238.5Teleop225

144.1Endgame106.6

78Consistency134

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	104	91
teleop	326	187
endgame	99	87
foul	15	0
total	544	365

Result

Final score

544 – 365

Prediction correct · off by 70.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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