Qualification · Qualification 110

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

394.52 – 397.99

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

453 – 329

Prediction missed · off by 63.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 699.8 ±7.8

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 139.08Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 146.62Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2638Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 108.82Rank 59Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 660.3 ±9.9

2704Roaring Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 74.33Rank 56Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 128.05Rank 48Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1002CircuitRunners Robotics

Season APEX 265.3Event APEX 195.61Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 118, 190, 2638

/ 100 compat

Projected

394.5 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 118, 190, 2638

Auto

104.4 27%

Teleop

192.2 50%

Endgame

90.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2704, 1908, 1002

/ 100 compat

Projected

398 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 2704, 1908, 1002

Auto

70.5 18%

Teleop

232.6 59%

Endgame

89.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score394.5pts

Blue projected score398pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.5
Score range: 324–469
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 782 vs event baseline 396.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

699.8Season APEX660.3

104.4Auto70.5

192.2Teleop232.6

90.3Endgame89.9

144Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	76
teleop	224	209
endgame	148	39
foul	30	5
total	453	329

Result

Final score

453 – 329

Prediction missed · off by 63.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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