Qualification · Qualification 109

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

422.42 – 435.67

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

548 – 492

Prediction missed · off by 91 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 764 ±8.7

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 84.36Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4391BraveBots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 195.86Rank 9Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7220Steel Falcons

Season APEX 253.6Event APEX 142.2Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 664.4 ±9.3

7563SESI SENAI MEGAZORD

Season APEX 186.3Event APEX 100.92Rank 44Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3255SuperNURDs

A+

Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 246.1Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 88.65Rank 51Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10014, 4391, 7220

/ 100 compat

Projected

422.4 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 10014, 4391, 7220

Auto

96.0 23%

Teleop

206.4 50%

Endgame

113.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7563, 3255, 3603

/ 100 compat

Projected

435.7 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 7563, 3255, 3603

Auto

71.6 17%

Teleop

215.1 50%

Endgame

140.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score422.4pts

Blue projected score435.7pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.2
Score range: 351–507
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1040 vs event baseline 395.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

764Season APEX664.4

96Auto71.6

206.4Teleop215.1

113.8Endgame140

113Consistency137

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	92	87
teleop	296	247
endgame	150	153
foul	10	5
total	548	492

Result

Final score

548 – 492

Prediction missed · off by 91 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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