Qualification · Qualification 106

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

308.47 – 346.87

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

274 – 401

Prediction correct · off by 44.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 663.6 ±8.7

1306BadgerBOTS

Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 152.13Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3770BlitzCreek

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 74.57Rank 57Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 81.77Rank 66Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 681.5 ±13.9

2096RoboActive

Provisional

Season APEX 188.5Event APEX 14.98Rank 61Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 158.22Rank 50Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

360The Revolution

Season APEX 272.4Event APEX 173.67Rank 38Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1306, 3770, 9757

/ 100 compat

Projected

308.5 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 1306, 3770, 9757

Auto

24.7 8%

Teleop

177.8 58%

Endgame

103.6 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2096, 48, 360

/ 100 compat

Projected

346.9 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 2096, 48, 360

Auto

64.6 19%

Teleop

184.4 54%

Endgame

90.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score308.5pts

Blue projected score346.9pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -38.4
Score range: 237–418
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 675 vs event baseline 396.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

663.6Season APEX681.5

24.7Auto64.6

177.8Teleop184.4

103.6Endgame90.7

105Consistency131

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	59
teleop	185	245
endgame	16	97
foul	5	0
total	274	401

Result

Final score

274 – 401

Prediction correct · off by 44.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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