Qualification · Qualification 105

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

420.84 – 300.18

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

488 – 432

Prediction correct · off by 99.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 693.9 ±11.2

6829Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 94.29Rank 58Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3061Huskie Robotics

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 148.62Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9597Luban Robotics

A+

Season APEX 324.6Event APEX 177.93Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 681 ±10.7

3620Average Joes

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 164.5Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7551Extreme Mechanism

Season APEX 179Event APEX -1.28Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1073The Force Team

Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 136.96Rank 35Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6829, 3061, 9597

/ 100 compat

Projected

420.8 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 6829, 3061, 9597

Auto

101.0 24%

Teleop

255.9 61%

Endgame

64.1 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3620, 7551, 1073

/ 100 compat

Projected

300.2 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 3620, 7551, 1073

Auto

51.3 18%

Teleop

147.4 50%

Endgame

94.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.4 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score420.8pts

Blue projected score300.2pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 120.7
Score range: 229–492
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 920 vs event baseline 395.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

693.9Season APEX681

101Auto51.3

255.9Teleop147.4

64.1Endgame94

111Consistency146

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	93	90
teleop	276	201
endgame	104	111
foul	15	30
total	488	432

Result

Final score

488 – 432

Prediction correct · off by 99.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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