Qualification · Qualification 104

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

359.04 – 211.66

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

403 – 352

Prediction correct · off by 92.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 716.7 ±9.3

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 123.65Rank 19Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4967That ONE Team-OurNextEngineers

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 99.5Rank 52Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2252The Mavericks

Season APEX 254.4Event APEX 135.89Rank 49Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 512.5 ±11

10396Mostra

Season APEX 127.8Event APEX 23.74Rank 75Record 0-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6766AtomStorm

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 78.82Rank 74Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9484Robot's District

Season APEX 158Event APEX 109.1Rank 55Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 955, 4967, 2252

/ 100 compat

Projected

359 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 955, 4967, 2252

Auto

65.6 19%

Teleop

201.2 59%

Endgame

76.7 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10396, 6766, 9484

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.7 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 10396, 6766, 9484

Auto

51.7 24%

Teleop

93.3 43%

Endgame

71.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.32 · Blue 0.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score359pts

Blue projected score211.7pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 147.4
Score range: 141–430
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 755 vs event baseline 395.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

716.7Season APEX512.5

65.6Auto51.7

201.2Teleop93.3

76.7Endgame71

155Consistency193

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	91
teleop	182	212
endgame	134	39
foul	20	10
total	403	352

Result

Final score

403 – 352

Prediction correct · off by 92.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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