Qualification · Qualification 102

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

399.49 – 536.41

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

375 – 541

Prediction correct · off by 14.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 790.2 ±8.7

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 188.26Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2522Royal Robotics

Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 115.23Rank 24Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 96Rank 60Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 771.9 ±11.4

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 319.49Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7403Lightning Blue Lizards

Season APEX 220Event APEX 54.99Rank 65Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 161.93Rank 25Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4946, 2522, 619

/ 100 compat

Projected

399.5 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 4946, 2522, 619

Auto

103.1 28%

Teleop

174.0 46%

Endgame

97.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7558, 7403, 3536

/ 100 compat

Projected

536.4 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 7558, 7403, 3536

Auto

84.9 17%

Teleop

305.4 60%

Endgame

117.1 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.87 · Blue 2.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score399.5pts

Blue projected score536.4pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -136.9
Score range: 328–607
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 916 vs event baseline 394.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

790.2Season APEX771.9

103.1Auto84.9

174Teleop305.4

97.8Endgame117.1

145Consistency147

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	103	126
teleop	145	255
endgame	122	125
foul	5	35
total	375	541

Result

Final score

375 – 541

Prediction correct · off by 14.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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