Qualification · Qualification 101

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

510.11 – 502.82

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

315 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 255.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 687.1 ±9.3

7257Semiconductors

Season APEX 179.4Event APEX 93.18Rank 54Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 197.52Rank 14Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 219.41Rank 27Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 883.7 ±11.9

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 196.81Rank 32Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6940Violet Z

Season APEX 206.2Event APEX 74.29Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9483Overcharge

Season APEX 377.8Event APEX 231.72Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7257, 33, 2877

/ 100 compat

Projected

510.1 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 7257, 33, 2877

Auto

74.5 15%

Teleop

269.0 54%

Endgame

155.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10340, 6940, 9483

/ 100 compat

Projected

502.8 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 10340, 6940, 9483

Auto

106.0 22%

Teleop

295.9 60%

Endgame

89.0 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score510.1pts

Blue projected score502.8pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.3
Score range: 432–581
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 502 vs event baseline 395.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

687.1Season APEX883.7

74.5Auto106

269Teleop295.9

155.2Endgame89

105Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	126	139
teleop	119	40
endgame	70	8
foul	0	0
total	315	187

Result

Final score

315 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 255.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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