Final · Finals 1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
537.12 – 585.79
35%65%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
610 – 565
Prediction missed · off by 46.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 839.6 ±8.7
Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 180.1Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 187.58Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 169.44Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 780.8 ±8.7
Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 201.79Rank 34Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 253.6Event APEX 168.61Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 215.39Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6324, 4946, 2337
80
/ 100 compatProjected
537.1 pts
~1.4 RP (championship)
Teams: 6324, 4946, 2337
Auto
107.5 20%
Teleop
295.1 55%
Endgame
129.7 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 23%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9072, 7220, 836
83
/ 100 compatProjected
585.8 pts
~1.9 RP (championship)
Teams: 9072, 7220, 836
Auto
106.3 19%
Teleop
313.5 55%
Endgame
150.3 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 23%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.91
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score537.1pts
Blue projected score585.8pts
Red win probability35%
Event bonus sample280alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 49%, blue 44%
Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 15%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -48.7
- Score range
- 463–660
- Upset likelihood
- 35%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
839.6Season APEX780.8
107.5Auto106.3
295.1Teleop313.5
129.7Endgame150.3
116Consistency89
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 97 | 104 |
| teleop | 331 | 356 |
| endgame | 157 | 85 |
| foul | 25 | 20 |
| total | 610 | 565 |
Result
Final score
610 – 565
Prediction missed · off by 46.8 pts
Match videos
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