Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

405.38 – 533.82

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

330 – 391

Prediction correct · off by 109.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 647.2 ±43.5

7039❌⭕

Provisional

Season APEX 307.7Event APEX 235.65Rank 4Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4590GreenBlitz

Provisional

Season APEX 339.5Event APEX 94.36Rank 8Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5614Team Sycamore

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 75.37Rank 6Record 4-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 961.6 ±19.6

2231OnyxTronix

Season APEX 365.5Event APEX 251.94Rank 3Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

2630Thunderbolts

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 212.5Rank 2Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 76

1577Steampunk

Provisional

Season APEX 282.9Event APEX 69.38Rank 10Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7039, 4590, 5614

/ 100 compat

Projected

405.4 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7039, 4590, 5614

Auto

72.8 18%

Teleop

227.8 56%

Endgame

104.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 98%

Supercharged: 67%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2231, 2630, 1577

/ 100 compat

Projected

533.8 pts

~3.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2231, 2630, 1577

Auto

120.1 23%

Teleop

318.6 60%

Endgame

89.2 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 98%

Supercharged: 67%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2 · Blue 3.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score405.4pts

Blue projected score533.8pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample38alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 98%, blue 96%

Supercharged bonusred 67%, blue 76%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -128.4
Score range: 328–611
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 721 vs event baseline 425.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

647.2Season APEX961.6

72.8Auto120.1

227.8Teleop318.6

104.4Endgame89.2

115Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	131	98
teleop	164	229
endgame	20	64
foul	15	0
total	330	391

Result

Final score

330 – 391

Prediction correct · off by 109.1 pts

Match videos

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