Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

526.44 – 454.63

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

563 – 486

Prediction correct · off by 34 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 961.6 ±19.6

2231OnyxTronix

Season APEX 365.5Event APEX 250.07Rank 3Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

2630Thunderbolts

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 209.94Rank 2Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 76

1577Steampunk

Provisional

Season APEX 282.9Event APEX 66.43Rank 10Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 769.8 ±42.7

5987Galaxia in memory of David Zohar

A+

Season APEX 327.4Event APEX 198.34Rank 1Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 76

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 223.91Rank 5Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

4744Ninjas

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 32.38Rank 11Record 2-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2231, 2630, 1577

/ 100 compat

Projected

526.4 pts

~3.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2231, 2630, 1577

Auto

114.5 22%

Teleop

320.0 61%

Endgame

86.4 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 96%

Supercharged: 76%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5987, 1690, 4744

/ 100 compat

Projected

454.6 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5987, 1690, 4744

Auto

99.4 22%

Teleop

253.5 56%

Endgame

98.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 96%

Supercharged: 76%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 3.16 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score526.4pts

Blue projected score454.6pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample38alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 96%, blue 98%

Supercharged bonusred 76%, blue 63%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 71.8
Score range: 379–602
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1049 vs event baseline 420.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

961.6Season APEX769.8

114.5Auto99.4

320Teleop253.5

86.4Endgame98.3

81Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	127	55
teleop	307	221
endgame	119	195
foul	0	15
total	563	486

Result

Final score

563 – 486

Prediction correct · off by 34 pts

Match videos

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