Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

519.42 – 397.49

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

292 – 395

Prediction missed · off by 115 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 769.8 ±42.7

5987Galaxia in memory of David Zohar

A+

Season APEX 327.4Event APEX 217.86Rank 1Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 76

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 248.9Rank 5Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

4744Ninjas

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 52.66Rank 11Record 2-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 647.2 ±43.5

7039❌⭕

Provisional

Season APEX 307.7Event APEX 235.51Rank 4Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4590GreenBlitz

Provisional

Season APEX 339.5Event APEX 89.55Rank 8Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5614Team Sycamore

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 72.43Rank 6Record 4-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5987, 1690, 4744

/ 100 compat

Projected

519.4 pts

~3.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5987, 1690, 4744

Auto

104.0 20%

Teleop

279.0 54%

Endgame

131.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 98%

Supercharged: 63%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7039, 4590, 5614

/ 100 compat

Projected

397.5 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7039, 4590, 5614

Auto

69.3 17%

Teleop

229.9 58%

Endgame

97.4 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 98%

Supercharged: 63%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 3.27 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score519.4pts

Blue projected score397.5pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample38alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 98%, blue 98%

Supercharged bonusred 63%, blue 67%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 121.9
Score range: 321–595
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 687 vs event baseline 424.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

769.8Season APEX647.2

104Auto69.3

279Teleop229.9

131.7Endgame97.4

54Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	89	75
teleop	184	197
endgame	19	123
foul	0	0
total	292	395

Result

Final score

292 – 395

Prediction missed · off by 115 pts

Match videos

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