Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

329.82 – 428.23

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

419 – 387

Prediction missed · off by 65.2 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 884.8 ±20.2

2630Thunderbolts

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 117.93Rank 2Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 76

1577Steampunk

Provisional

Season APEX 282.9Event APEX 132.94Rank 10Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5951Makers Assemble

Provisional

Season APEX 288.7Event APEX 78.95Rank 7Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 692.9 ±42.9

4744Ninjas

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 121.84Rank 11Record 2-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5987Galaxia in memory of David Zohar

A+

Season APEX 327.4Event APEX 151.32Rank 1Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2231OnyxTronix

Season APEX 365.5Event APEX 155.07Rank 3Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2630, 1577, 5951

/ 100 compat

Projected

329.8 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2630, 1577, 5951

Auto

60.0 18%

Teleop

180.3 54%

Endgame

90.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 94%

Supercharged: 70%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4744, 5987, 2231

/ 100 compat

Projected

428.2 pts

~3.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4744, 5987, 2231

Auto

86.4 21%

Teleop

233.6 56%

Endgame

99.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 94%

Supercharged: 70%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.11 · Blue 3.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score329.8pts

Blue projected score428.2pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample38alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 94%, blue 98%

Supercharged bonusred 70%, blue 70%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -98.4
Score range: 258–500
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 806 vs event baseline 402.6.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

884.8Season APEX692.9

60Auto86.4

180.3Teleop233.6

90.8Endgame99.9

160Consistency160

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	115
teleop	209	198
endgame	133	74
foul	0	0
total	419	387

Result

Final score

419 – 387

Prediction missed · off by 65.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.