Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

375.92 – 467.09

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

412 – 572

Prediction correct · off by 70.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1001.3 ±19.7

10935Krono

Provisional

Season APEX 260.5Event APEX 58.14Rank 9Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 229.87Rank 5Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

3075Ha-Dream Team

Provisional

Season APEX 298.4Event APEX 87.91Rank 12Record 2-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 923.5 ±19.6

1577Steampunk

Provisional

Season APEX 282.9Event APEX 59.47Rank 10Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2630Thunderbolts

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 205.65Rank 2Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5987Galaxia in memory of David Zohar

A+

Season APEX 327.4Event APEX 201.97Rank 1Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10935, 1690, 3075

/ 100 compat

Projected

375.9 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10935, 1690, 3075

Auto

79.3 21%

Teleop

248.8 66%

Endgame

50.9 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 96%

Supercharged: 63%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1577, 2630, 5987

/ 100 compat

Projected

467.1 pts

~3.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1577, 2630, 5987

Auto

79.2 17%

Teleop

263.5 57%

Endgame

121.4 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 96%

Supercharged: 63%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.1 · Blue 3.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score375.9pts

Blue projected score467.1pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample38alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 96%, blue 96%

Supercharged bonusred 63%, blue 76%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -91.2
Score range: 300–543
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 984 vs event baseline 422.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1001.3Season APEX923.5

79.3Auto79.2

248.8Teleop263.5

50.9Endgame121.4

63Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	96	86
teleop	294	367
endgame	22	119
foul	0	0
total	412	572

Result

Final score

412 – 572

Prediction correct · off by 70.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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