Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

436.15 – 306.97

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

434 – 441

Prediction missed · off by 68.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 952.6 ±20.2

3075Ha-Dream Team

Provisional

Season APEX 298.4Event APEX 79.64Rank 12Record 2-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5951Makers Assemble

Provisional

Season APEX 288.7Event APEX 118.28Rank 7Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2231OnyxTronix

Season APEX 365.5Event APEX 238.23Rank 3Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 913.2 ±20.2

2630Thunderbolts

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 195.28Rank 2Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4590GreenBlitz

Provisional

Season APEX 339.5Event APEX 74.84Rank 8Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10935Krono

Provisional

Season APEX 260.5Event APEX 36.85Rank 9Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3075, 5951, 2231

/ 100 compat

Projected

436.2 pts

~3.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3075, 5951, 2231

Auto

77.3 18%

Teleop

258.7 60%

Endgame

98.3 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 96%

Supercharged: 73%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2630, 4590, 10935

/ 100 compat

Projected

307 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2630, 4590, 10935

Auto

53.5 18%

Teleop

201.4 66%

Endgame

48.9 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 96%

Supercharged: 73%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 3.37 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score436.2pts

Blue projected score307pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample38alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 96%, blue 96%

Supercharged bonusred 73%, blue 64%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 129.2
Score range: 231–512
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 875 vs event baseline 423.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

952.6Season APEX913.2

77.3Auto53.5

258.7Teleop201.4

98.3Endgame48.9

90Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	96
teleop	263	255
endgame	109	90
foul	0	0
total	434	441

Result

Final score

434 – 441

Prediction missed · off by 68.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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