Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

264.47 – 529.12

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

182 – 917

Prediction correct · off by 235.2 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 637.9 ±43.5

4590GreenBlitz

Provisional

Season APEX 339.5Event APEX 70.52Rank 8Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3075Ha-Dream Team

Provisional

Season APEX 298.4Event APEX 130.9Rank 12Record 2-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4744Ninjas

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 63.05Rank 11Record 2-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 1135.3 ±18.5

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 157.71Rank 5Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

2231OnyxTronix

Season APEX 365.5Event APEX 229.65Rank 3Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5987Galaxia in memory of David Zohar

A+

Season APEX 327.4Event APEX 141.76Rank 1Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4590, 3075, 4744

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.5 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4590, 3075, 4744

Auto

66.3 26%

Teleop

152.2 59%

Endgame

38.5 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 98%

Supercharged: 58%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1690, 2231, 5987

/ 100 compat

Projected

529.1 pts

~3.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1690, 2231, 5987

Auto

99.5 19%

Teleop

319.5 60%

Endgame

113.2 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 98%

Supercharged: 58%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.65 · Blue 3.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score264.5pts

Blue projected score529.1pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample38alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 98%, blue 98%

Supercharged bonusred 58%, blue 76%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -264.6
Score range: 193–600
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1099 vs event baseline 396.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

637.9Season APEX1135.3

66.3Auto99.5

152.2Teleop319.5

38.5Endgame113.2

114Consistency137

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	146
teleop	108	564
endgame	0	207
foul	0	0
total	182	917

Result

Final score

182 – 917

Prediction correct · off by 235.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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