Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

370.36 – 393.83

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

562 – 218

Prediction missed · off by 183.7 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 939.2 ±19.6

2231OnyxTronix

Season APEX 365.5Event APEX 170.15Rank 3Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10935Krono

Provisional

Season APEX 260.5Event APEX 28.88Rank 9Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2630Thunderbolts

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 171.33Rank 2Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 442.4 ±57.4

4744Ninjas

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 107.95Rank 11Record 2-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 198.77Rank 5Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

5614Team Sycamore

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 87.11Rank 6Record 4-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2231, 10935, 2630

/ 100 compat

Projected

370.4 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2231, 10935, 2630

Auto

104.7 29%

Teleop

207.5 57%

Endgame

49.2 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 96%

Supercharged: 73%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4744, 1690, 5614

/ 100 compat

Projected

393.8 pts

~2.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4744, 1690, 5614

Auto

117.7 30%

Teleop

233.2 59%

Endgame

45.9 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 96%

Supercharged: 73%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.56 · Blue 2.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score370.4pts

Blue projected score393.8pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample38alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 96%, blue 98%

Supercharged bonusred 73%, blue 59%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.5
Score range: 298–466
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 780 vs event baseline 397.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

939.2Season APEX442.4

104.7Auto117.7

207.5Teleop233.2

49.2Endgame45.9

147Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	117	86
teleop	364	93
endgame	81	39
foul	0	0
total	562	218

Result

Final score

562 – 218

Prediction missed · off by 183.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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