Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

495.53 – 545.56

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

397 – 572

Prediction correct · off by 62.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 939 ±19.6

5987Galaxia in memory of David Zohar

A+

Season APEX 327.4Event APEX 201.97Rank 1Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2630Thunderbolts

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 205.65Rank 2Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3075Ha-Dream Team

Provisional

Season APEX 298.4Event APEX 87.91Rank 12Record 2-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 673.2 ±43.2

5614Team Sycamore

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 70.24Rank 6Record 4-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7039❌⭕

Provisional

Season APEX 307.7Event APEX 233.56Rank 4Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2231OnyxTronix

Season APEX 365.5Event APEX 241.76Rank 3Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5987, 2630, 3075

/ 100 compat

Projected

495.5 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5987, 2630, 3075

Auto

83.2 17%

Teleop

292.4 59%

Endgame

118.2 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 98%

Supercharged: 80%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5614, 7039, 2231

/ 100 compat

Projected

545.6 pts

~3.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5614, 7039, 2231

Auto

119.6 22%

Teleop

320.2 59%

Endgame

102.7 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 98%

Supercharged: 80%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.5 · Blue 3.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score495.5pts

Blue projected score545.6pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample38alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 98%, blue 98%

Supercharged bonusred 80%, blue 76%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -50
Score range: 420–622
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 969 vs event baseline 422.4.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

939Season APEX673.2

83.2Auto119.6

292.4Teleop320.2

118.2Endgame102.7

99Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	97
teleop	213	353
endgame	122	122
foul	0	0
total	397	572

Result

Final score

397 – 572

Prediction correct · off by 62.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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