Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

316.99 – 194.75

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

454 – 256

Prediction correct · off by 99.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

11471Neon

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 19.43Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3316D-Bug

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 150.52Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1942Cinderella Tel-Nof

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 147.04Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

8175Piece of Mind

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 107.42Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7177Turismo

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 25.38Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

78458BIT

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 61.95Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11471, 3316, 1942

/ 100 compat

Projected

317 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11471, 3316, 1942

Auto

70.2 22%

Teleop

187.8 59%

Endgame

61.0 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8175, 7177, 7845

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8175, 7177, 7845

Auto

29.3 17%

Teleop

114.3 67%

Endgame

26.1 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.26 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score317pts

Blue projected score194.8pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 122.2
Score range: 161–351
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 710 vs event baseline 187.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

70.2Auto29.3

187.8Teleop114.3

61Endgame26.1

0Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	94	48
teleop	301	148
endgame	59	55
foul	0	5
total	454	256

Result

Final score

454 – 256

Prediction correct · off by 99.1 pts