Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

403.67 – 199.97

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

625 – 318

Prediction correct · off by 169.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 298.4 ±57.8

4744Ninjas

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 197.76Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11478Nexus

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -31.09Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3075Ha-Dream Team

Provisional

Season APEX 298.4Event APEX 237Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

11332Sunrise

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -11.12Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2230General Angels

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 83.18Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5614Team Sycamore

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 127.91Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4744, 11478, 3075

/ 100 compat

Projected

403.7 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4744, 11478, 3075

Auto

100.9 25%

Teleop

227.6 57%

Endgame

74.3 18%

Strengths

· 3075 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11332, 2230, 5614

/ 100 compat

Projected

200 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 11332, 2230, 5614

Auto

38.6 20%

Teleop

119.7 63%

Endgame

31.8 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.47 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score403.7pts

Blue projected score200pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 203.7
Score range: 167–437
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 943 vs event baseline 182.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

298.4Season APEX0

100.9Auto38.6

227.6Teleop119.7

74.3Endgame31.8

18Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	150	59
teleop	367	161
endgame	93	78
foul	15	20
total	625	318

Result

Final score

625 – 318

Prediction correct · off by 169.7 pts

Match videos

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