Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

76.69 – 116.5

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

82 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 11.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

11390Habsor

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -5.72Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6230Team Koi

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 27.39Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1943Neat Team

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 55.02Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

5990TRIGON

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 16.56Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11329G-Force

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 10.98Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5715DRC

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 88.96Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11390, 6230, 1943

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11390, 6230, 1943

Auto

20.3 28%

Teleop

36.3 49%

Endgame

16.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5990, 11329, 5715

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5990, 11329, 5715

Auto

26.8 26%

Teleop

50.0 48%

Endgame

27.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score76.7pts

Blue projected score116.5pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.8
Score range: 44–150
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 181 vs event baseline 183.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

20.3Auto26.8

36.3Teleop50

16.9Endgame27.4

33Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	14
teleop	15	43
endgame	31	42
foul	15	0
total	82	99

Result

Final score

82 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 11.4 pts