Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

54.04 – 96.81

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

31 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 15.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

2212The Spikes

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 10.45Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4320The Joker

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 16.77Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1937Elysium

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 26.82Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

5928MetalBoost

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 17.61Rank 24Record 2-10-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11070RoboRex

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 32.78Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6740G3 - Glue Gun & Glitter

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 46.42Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2212, 4320, 1937

/ 100 compat

Projected

54 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2212, 4320, 1937

Auto

-1.3 0%

Teleop

23.6 47%

Endgame

27.7 55%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5928, 11070, 6740

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5928, 11070, 6740

Auto

17.2 18%

Teleop

54.0 58%

Endgame

21.8 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score54pts

Blue projected score96.8pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.8
Score range: 21–130
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 119 vs event baseline 186.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

-1.3Auto17.2

23.6Teleop54

27.7Endgame21.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	30
teleop	9	24
endgame	14	34
foul	0	0
total	31	88

Result

Final score

31 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 15.9 pts