Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

397.73 – 61.27

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

408 – 22

Prediction correct · off by 24.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 298.4 ±57.8

4744Ninjas

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 196.25Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11478Nexus

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -33.79Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3075Ha-Dream Team

Provisional

Season APEX 298.4Event APEX 235.27Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

2212The Spikes

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 13.59Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4320The Joker

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 19.27Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1937Elysium

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 28.41Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4744, 11478, 3075

/ 100 compat

Projected

397.7 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4744, 11478, 3075

Auto

97.6 25%

Teleop

231.9 58%

Endgame

68.3 17%

Strengths

· 3075 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2212, 4320, 1937

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.3 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2212, 4320, 1937

Auto

-1.9 0%

Teleop

23.0 41%

Endgame

35.3 63%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.58 · Blue 0.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score397.7pts

Blue projected score61.3pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 336.5
Score range: 27–432
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 430 vs event baseline 187.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

298.4Season APEX0

97.6Auto-1.9

231.9Teleop23

68.3Endgame35.3

43Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	117	5
teleop	190	10
endgame	101	7
foul	0	0
total	408	22

Result

Final score

408 – 22

Prediction correct · off by 24.8 pts

Match videos

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