Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

207.22 – 216.04

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

239 – 354

Prediction correct · off by 84.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

78458BIT

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 65.22Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7177Turismo

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 29.7Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

8175Piece of Mind

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 112.3Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

5614Team Sycamore

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 132.32Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2230General Angels

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 88.94Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11332Sunrise

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -5.22Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7845, 7177, 8175

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7845, 7177, 8175

Auto

33.5 18%

Teleop

121.9 66%

Endgame

28.3 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5614, 2230, 11332

/ 100 compat

Projected

216 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5614, 2230, 11332

Auto

46.2 23%

Teleop

120.5 59%

Endgame

37.5 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score207.2pts

Blue projected score216pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.8
Score range: 172–251
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 593 vs event baseline 194.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

33.5Auto46.2

121.9Teleop120.5

28.3Endgame37.5

12Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	57
teleop	153	206
endgame	40	76
foul	15	15
total	239	354

Result

Final score

239 – 354

Prediction correct · off by 84.9 pts