Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

435.58 – 338.05

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

578 – 487

Prediction correct · off by 145.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 298.4 ±57.8

4744Ninjas

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 209.54Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11478Nexus

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -22.14Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3075Ha-Dream Team

Provisional

Season APEX 298.4Event APEX 248.18Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

11471Neon

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 25.8Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3316D-Bug

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 158.55Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1942Cinderella Tel-Nof

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 153.7Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4744, 11478, 3075

/ 100 compat

Projected

435.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4744, 11478, 3075

Auto

107.4 25%

Teleop

247.8 57%

Endgame

77.2 18%

Strengths

· 3075 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11471, 3316, 1942

/ 100 compat

Projected

338.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11471, 3316, 1942

Auto

73.2 22%

Teleop

205.4 60%

Endgame

61.1 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.16 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score435.6pts

Blue projected score338.1pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 97.5
Score range: 304–470
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1065 vs event baseline 189.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

298.4Season APEX0

107.4Auto73.2

247.8Teleop205.4

77.2Endgame61.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	103	99
teleop	351	263
endgame	119	125
foul	5	0
total	578	487

Result

Final score

578 – 487

Prediction correct · off by 145.7 pts

Match videos

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