Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

186.93 – 272.76

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

161 – 445

Prediction correct · off by 99.1 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

5928MetalBoost

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 42.27Rank 24Record 2-10-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5715DRC

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 47.3Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11070RoboRex

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 97.36Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298.4 ±57.8

3075Ha-Dream Team

Provisional

Season APEX 298.4Event APEX 87.7Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5614Team Sycamore

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 97.36Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6740G3 - Glue Gun & Glitter

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 87.7Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5928, 5715, 11070

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5928, 5715, 11070

Auto

26.0 14%

Teleop

134.0 74%

Endgame

20.9 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3075, 5614, 6740

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3075, 5614, 6740

Auto

48.4 18%

Teleop

184.0 69%

Endgame

34.8 13%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.07 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score186.9pts

Blue projected score272.8pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -85.8
Score range: 158–302
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 606 vs event baseline 163.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX298.4

26Auto48.4

134Teleop184

20.9Endgame34.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	67
teleop	99	262
endgame	14	116
foul	30	0
total	161	445

Result

Final score

161 – 445

Prediction correct · off by 99.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree