Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

164.55 – 191.67

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

63 – 372

Prediction correct · off by 140.9 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

7177Turismo

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 72.38Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11390Habsor

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 39.88Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6230Team Koi

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 52.29Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

8175Piece of Mind

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 52.29Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4744Ninjas

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 116.29Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11332Sunrise

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 23.09Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7177, 11390, 6230

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7177, 11390, 6230

Auto

24.3 16%

Teleop

95.0 62%

Endgame

32.8 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8175, 4744, 11332

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8175, 4744, 11332

Auto

33.3 17%

Teleop

135.5 71%

Endgame

22.3 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score164.5pts

Blue projected score191.7pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.1
Score range: 137–220
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 435 vs event baseline 154.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

24.3Auto33.3

95Teleop135.5

32.8Endgame22.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	86
teleop	19	237
endgame	28	49
foul	0	0
total	63	372

Result

Final score

63 – 372

Prediction correct · off by 140.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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