Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

268.7 – 315.67

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

250 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

5614Team Sycamore

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 132.38Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

8175Piece of Mind

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 117.82Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5990TRIGON

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 18.5Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298.4 ±57.8

11390Habsor

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -1.22Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

78458BIT

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 76.79Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3075Ha-Dream Team

Provisional

Season APEX 298.4Event APEX 240.1Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5614, 8175, 5990

/ 100 compat

Projected

268.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5614, 8175, 5990

Auto

38.9 15%

Teleop

162.4 63%

Endgame

58.4 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11390, 7845, 3075

/ 100 compat

Projected

315.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11390, 7845, 3075

Auto

64.6 21%

Teleop

182.9 60%

Endgame

56.4 19%

Strengths

· 3075 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score268.7pts

Blue projected score315.7pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -47
Score range: 236–349
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 525 vs event baseline 185.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX298.4

38.9Auto64.6

162.4Teleop182.9

58.4Endgame56.4

12Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	112
teleop	128	123
endgame	29	25
foul	45	15
total	250	275

Result

Final score

250 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree