Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

65.03 – 353.8

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

34 – 340

Prediction correct · off by 22.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

2212The Spikes

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 6.5Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5928MetalBoost

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 21.49Rank 24Record 2-10-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7177Turismo

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 37.04Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

4744Ninjas

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 197.21Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1937Elysium

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 17.38Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1942Cinderella Tel-Nof

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 139.21Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2212, 5928, 7177

/ 100 compat

Projected

65 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2212, 5928, 7177

Auto

-15.6 0%

Teleop

25.6 65%

Endgame

29.6 75%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4744, 1937, 1942

/ 100 compat

Projected

353.8 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4744, 1937, 1942

Auto

73.3 21%

Teleop

225.1 63%

Endgame

58.8 16%

Strengths

· 4744 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.5 · Blue 2.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score65pts

Blue projected score353.8pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -288.8
Score range: 32–387
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 374 vs event baseline 185.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

-15.6Auto73.3

25.6Teleop225.1

29.6Endgame58.8

0Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	88
teleop	4	215
endgame	2	37
foul	15	0
total	34	340

Result

Final score

34 – 340

Prediction correct · off by 22.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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