Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

20.56 – 279.9

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

52 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 69.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

5990TRIGON

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 14.09Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6230Team Koi

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 21.43Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11332Sunrise

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -14.96Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298.4 ±57.8

3075Ha-Dream Team

Provisional

Season APEX 298.4Event APEX 251.58Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11070RoboRex

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 52.11Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11478Nexus

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -23.79Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5990, 6230, 11332

/ 100 compat

Projected

20.6 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5990, 6230, 11332

Auto

16.5 58%

Teleop

7.3 26%

Endgame

4.7 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3075, 11070, 11478

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3075, 11070, 11478

Auto

51.6 19%

Teleop

145.9 55%

Endgame

69.3 26%

Strengths

· 3075 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.54 · Blue 2.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score20.6pts

Blue projected score279.9pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -259.3
Score range: -13–314
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 224 vs event baseline 186.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX298.4

16.5Auto51.6

7.3Teleop145.9

4.7Endgame69.3

33Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	20
teleop	21	147
endgame	10	0
foul	0	5
total	52	172

Result

Final score

52 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 69.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree