Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

256.39 – 226.91

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

228 – 307

Prediction missed · off by 54.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

11390Habsor

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 0.62Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5614Team Sycamore

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 136.54Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

8175Piece of Mind

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 119.23Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

5715DRC

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 83.11Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2230General Angels

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 73.03Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

78458BIT

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 70.77Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11390, 5614, 8175

/ 100 compat

Projected

256.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11390, 5614, 8175

Auto

39.2 16%

Teleop

164.3 66%

Endgame

45.9 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5715, 2230, 7845

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5715, 2230, 7845

Auto

43.7 21%

Teleop

143.1 68%

Endgame

24.5 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score256.4pts

Blue projected score226.9pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.5
Score range: 194–289
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 535 vs event baseline 184.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

39.2Auto43.7

164.3Teleop143.1

45.9Endgame24.5

19Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	72
teleop	117	179
endgame	48	51
foul	20	5
total	228	307

Result

Final score

228 – 307

Prediction missed · off by 54.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree