Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

71.29 – 160.15

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

87 – 45

Prediction missed · off by 65.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

11390Habsor

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 5.89Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5990TRIGON

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 13.92Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1943Neat Team

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 51.48Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

11471Neon

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 16.76Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7177Turismo

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 47.54Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5715DRC

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 95.85Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11390, 5990, 1943

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11390, 5990, 1943

Auto

20.8 31%

Teleop

29.2 43%

Endgame

18.0 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11471, 7177, 5715

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11471, 7177, 5715

Auto

18.7 14%

Teleop

87.0 64%

Endgame

29.8 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.03 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score71.3pts

Blue projected score160.1pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -88.9
Score range: 38–193
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 132 vs event baseline 185.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

20.8Auto18.7

29.2Teleop87

18Endgame29.8

32Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	16
teleop	37	14
endgame	8	0
foul	15	15
total	87	45

Result

Final score

87 – 45

Prediction missed · off by 65.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree