Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

235.98 – 229.35

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

160 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 78.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

5990TRIGON

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 21.26Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11390Habsor

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 13.97Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4744Ninjas

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 200.75Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

3316D-Bug

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 113.68Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2212The Spikes

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 18.12Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5715DRC

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 97.55Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5990, 11390, 4744

/ 100 compat

Projected

236 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5990, 11390, 4744

Auto

79.4 32%

Teleop

140.3 56%

Endgame

30.0 12%

Strengths

· 4744 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3316, 2212, 5715

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3316, 2212, 5715

Auto

43.1 20%

Teleop

115.7 53%

Endgame

60.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score236pts

Blue projected score229.4pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.6
Score range: 196–269
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 309 vs event baseline 180.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

79.4Auto43.1

140.3Teleop115.7

30Endgame60.4

40Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	39
teleop	81	110
endgame	8	0
foul	15	0
total	160	149

Result

Final score

160 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 78.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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